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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.