Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
