🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still