Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
